Baltimore baseball fans went through a wild ride in the Red Sox series June 29-July 1 with the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.  The high was the greatest comeback in O’s history: down 10-1 they rallied to beat Boston 11-10.  The next day, the O’s had a 5-1 lead in the 9th inning, then the Red Sox rallied to score 4 and eventually win in extra innings.

The loss ignited heated discussion and criticism regarding the removal of starting pitcher Brad Bergesen from the game after 8 innings.  The bullpen blew the lead and manager Dave Trembley is blamed for what many feel was a “bad” decision to take out his starter who was cruising with a 5-1 lead, having thrown 103 pitches.  I’ve fielded the angry phone calls and heard the arguments- some wanting Trembley fired for the loss.  Ridiculous.

Second guessing and arm chair quarterbacking is part of the sports experience, I know.  And being a fan is a pass for being irrational, I realize.  But for those who are ready to fire Trembley for a pitching decision that EVERY manager routinely makes- let’s get a reality check.  On the same day that Trembley took the ball from Bergesen and handed it to his bullpen, 5 other managers did the same thing in games in which their starter went at least 7 innings and their team had a lead of 3 runs or more.  The Orioles, Blue Jays, A’s, White Sox, Twins and Cubs all had games that fit that description.  In ALL of those games, the starter was relieved.  Only in the O’s game did the relievers give up the lead.  Only in the O’s game did the relievers allow ANY runs.  In research done by RETROSHEET, in all Major League games since 1901, a team with a 3 run lead after 8 innings wins 96% of the time.  What happened to the O’s happens just over once per year per Major League team, on average.  Managers turn games over to relievers EVERY night, and with a lead- more times than not the plan works.  Trembley didn’t make a bad decision, he just got a bad result from the same decision every manager makes.  His relievers in the 9th inning- Jim Johnson and George Sherrill- were the most effective tandem in all of baseball for the past month.  He asked them to get 3 outs while protecting a 4 run lead, and they failed.   That’s baseball. 

I’ve heard callers and other radio hosts in town criticize me for “apologizing” for Trembley.  That accusation is inaccurate.  Managers win and lose with their decisions and in this case, Trembley (like 5 other managers that same night) played the favorable percentages.  His team lost and there’s a mark in the loss column for it.  What I don’t accept is that there’s mandatory “blame” to be assessed, and that it’s rational to blame the manager when he played the percentages and his players failed.  In that same game, Trembley wrote out a line-up that had Aubrey Huff batting 4th in the order and playing first base.  Huff went 0-for-5 in the game.  Did Trembley make a “bad” decision by putting his regular clean-up hitter in the line-up in his usual spot?  He must have because Huff didn’t get a hit!  See where I’m going here?  He used Johnson and Sherrill in a situation where they usually excel, and they failed.  That’s what happens in baseball sometimes.  Blame the manager, or worse yet- fire the manager?  Sometimes it’s hard to believe we even have discussions like this.  Sports debates are part of the fun of being a talk radio host, and sometimes part of the pain.

Posted on Thursday, July 2nd, 2009 at 4:43 pm.
Categories: Mark's Blog.
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